The Likely Lifecycle of a Pay-Per-Mile Car Tax
Phase 1: Announcement & Justification
Government presents the tax as “modernization” — necessary because fuel duty is declining with EV adoption.
Framed as fairer: “You pay for what you use.”
Promises of transparency and ring fence the money for oads (e.g., revenues to fund roads, public transport, or green infrastructure).
Remember to work they need the new ID card to be operational. This gives them access to your bank and they can take fines and whatever they think is due automatically.
Phase 2: The Sop
To soften backlash, a concession is offered:
A reduction in Vehicle Excise Duty (VED), used to be called road tax. The changed the name when it became obvious they lied. or a temporary fuel duty freeze.
Ministers stress that it’s not about raising more tax but replacing lost revenue. The fact is once EV use reaches a good percentage they will start paying tax like everyone else.
Phase 3: Rollout & Problems
Scheme will be outsourced to a corporate consortium — high setup costs, billing glitches, data privacy concerns. Systems breached - regularly!
Public anger grows over teething issues, but government insists these are “transitional.”Just like the Post Office, just like the Covid PPE, just like... well take your pick there are plenty of others
Early cases of wrongful charges/fines surface, often blamed on “user error.”
Phase 4: Backlash & Resistance
Motoring groups highlight “double taxation” since fuel duty and VAT are still in place.
Rural communities, small businesses, and low-income households complain of disproportionate burden.
Political opposition builds — perhaps even protests similar to the fuel duty blockades of 2000.
Phase 5: Normalization
Within a very short order, resistance fades as the tax becomes part of daily life.
The sop (lowered VED or frozen fuel duty) is quietly reversed — justified by “budget pressures.”
Public discourse shifts: Acceptance' instead of asking “Should we have this tax?” the debate becomes “How high should the rate be?”
Phase 6: Tax Creep
Mileage rates are adjusted upwards incrementally.
Additional “environmental surcharges” or “congestion premiums” are layered on.
EVs, initially incentivized, are charged at the same or higher rate as ICE cars once adoption is widespread.
Revenues grow well beyond original projections, but spending on road maintenance still lags behind.
Phase 7: The Endgame
Motorists are paying:
Fuel duty + VAT on fuel (for ICE drivers),
Pay-per-mile tax,
VED,
Plus indirect motoring-related levies (insurance premium tax, parking charges, congestion charges, tolls).
Benefits promised at the start (better roads, cleaner transport, cheaper alternatives) fail to materialize.
The system is locked in, and repeal becomes politically unthinkable.
Takeaway:
The per-mile tax won’t replace existing taxes — it will layer on top of them. The government will present temporary sops, but history (VED, PFI, PPE procurement, Horizon, NHS IT projects) shows the eventual outcome: creeping normalization, corporate profit extraction, and motorists left paying more for no added benefit.
Along with all that will be tiered levies, different rates applied for Motorways, city centers and mileage limits as a way of controlling the where and when motorists go, how long they stay etc.
Once the infrastructure for per-mile charging is in place, it opens the door behavioural controls that go far beyond simple revenue raising. That’s where it stops being “just another tax” and becomes a system of mobility management.
Differential Road Pricing
Here's how:
Motorways charged at one rate, city centres at a much higher premium.
Justified on grounds of congestion management, but in effect a way to make drivers pay more for “desirable” routes.
Wealthier drivers pay without concern, while lower-income motorists are priced out of certain areas.
Time-Based Surcharges:
Peak-time travel (commuting hours) charged more than off-peak. School runs are extra.
Late-night or weekend surcharges introduced under the guise of managing nightlife or reducing emissions.
This mirrors electricity tariffs or rail ticketing, where “flexibility” quickly becomes a way to extract more money.
Mileage Limits
Annual mileage caps could be introduced, with higher rates beyond the limit, just like some hire cars.
Sold as an environmental measure — “rewarding those who drive less.”
In reality, it penalizes rural and working-class drivers who depend on their cars, while the wealthy can simply pay the premium.
Geofenced Restrictions:
Certain zones (historic centres, residential districts, low-emission zones) effectively priced to deter car entry.
Once normalized, this becomes a powerful tool to control where motorists can and cannot go.
Future potential: extending it into dynamic restrictions (e.g., surge pricing during major events).Football matches, Rock concerts, racing...
Creep Toward Social Engineering:
The technology behind road pricing can be expanded to support broader policies this is the bit where the biggest lies and denials live
Higher rates for “older polluting vehicles.” Mainly because people will hold on to them as they will not have GPS and be difficult to price.
Discounts tied to compliance (EV ownership, emissions standards). Quickly reducing depending on EV uptake.
Integration with wider “carbon footprint” monitoring, potentially linking motoring to personal sustainability quotas. In future you may be assessed for your personal carbon footprint
Surveillance by Proxy
To enforce these tiered levies, systems will need continuous GPS or telematics tracking, or a massive increase in cameras and NPR.
This hands corporations and government agencies real-time data on when and where people go, how long they stay and eventually build up a digital version of our live that is worth billions to corporations etc.
Beyond privacy concerns, it normalizes the idea that mobility is conditional and monitored.
Big Picture: What begins as a revenue tool morphs into a mechanism of control — deciding not just how much you pay, but where and when you’re “allowed” to drive affordably. , history shows that once the infrastructure is in place, the scope of these schemes always expands.
Here's a summary:
Slippery Slope of Road Pricing
Stage 1 – Introduction
Framing: “Replacing declining fuel duty” as EVs rise.
Promise: Simple per-mile charge, fairer and modern.
Reality: Layered on top of fuel duty and VAT, not replacing them.
Stage 2 – Teething & Sops
Temporary cuts in Vehicle Excise Duty or fuel freezes offered.
Glitches, billing errors, privacy concerns brushed off as “transitional.”
Outsourced operator profits regardless of problems.
Stage 3 – Differential Pricing
Motorways charged at one rate, urban centres at another.
Peak-hour surcharges introduced “to tackle congestion.”
In practice, the wealthy pay for convenience while others are squeezed.
So tage 4 – Mileage Caps
“Green incentives”: low annual mileage rewarded, (rewarded by paying less), higher rates over a set mileage
Framed as “encouraging sustainability.”
Hits rural, disabled, and working households hardest.
Stage 5 – Zone Controls
City centres, historic districts, and low-emission zones priced prohibitively.
Expansion of geofenced restrictions: entire towns or neighbourhoods effectively off-limits unless you can pay.
Function shifts from taxation to movement control.
Stage 6 – Behavioural Engineering
Higher charges for older vehicles or ICE cars.
Discounts tied to EV ownership or low-carbon credentials.
Dynamic surcharges applied at events, sports matches, or even “bad air quality” days.
Stage 7 – Full Normalization
System entrenched; motorists pay multiple overlapping levies:
Fuel duty + VAT (for ICE)
Pay-per-mile base rate
Tiered surcharges (time, place, distance)
Vehicle Excise Duty (re-inflated)
Local congestion charges, tolls, parking fees
Compliance expected as normal; political appetite for rollback disappears.
Stage 8 – Surveillance & Control by Default
Continuous GPS tracking essential to enforce tiers and zones.
Real-time data accessible to corporate operators and government agencies.
Road pricing system evolves into a mobility control platform, not just a tax.
Travel from X to Y in Z time? Speeding - automatic fine and possible restrictions on your allowing only a certain amount of fuel or a temporary increase in price as a punishment.
Endgame:
What starts as a proposed “fair per-mile tax” becomes a web of charges, restrictions, and surveillance, introduced gradually so each step seems justified — but cumulatively creating a system where motorists’ when, where, and how much they drive is tightly regulated and monetised.
